23 Years of Federal Sentencing Data
Same Crime.
Different Time.
After controlling for offense severity, criminal history, and other legal factors, Black defendants receive an average of
longer in federal prison than White defendants
Meanwhile, Hispanic defendants receive
0 fewer months
than White defendants — a smaller but statistically significant difference
Robbery
+11.48
extra months
Black defendants get nearly a FULL EXTRA YEAR
Drug Trafficking
+6.78
extra months
The most common federal offense — and the gap persists
The Human Cost
Years Stolen
extra years of imprisonment imposed on Black defendants beyond what White defendants received for the same offenses
That's 296 lifetimes.
Drug Trafficking
71,255 years
+6.78 mo × 126,115 defendants
Firearms
17,341.2 years
+2.5 mo × 83,238 defendants
Robbery
5,950.5 years
+11.48 mo × 6,220 defendants
Individual Rights
5,127.6 years
+2.63 mo × 23,396 defendants
Fraud/Theft/Embezzlement
2,286 years
+3.16 mo × 8,681 defendants
Burglary/Trespass
1,567.9 years
+2.76 mo × 6,817 defendants
The Disparity
Same Offense. Different Sentence.
Average sentence length in months, by race, for defendants convicted of the same federal offense. All other factors held equal.
Black penalty for Drug Trafficking
+6.78 months ***
Based on 454,074 cases
Hispanic vs White for Drug Trafficking
-8.9 months
Raw average difference · 213,725 Hispanic cases
By Offense
Where the Gap Hits Hardest
Extra months of prison time imposed on Black defendants compared to White defendants, by offense type — after controlling for all legal factors.
📊 Hispanic defendants show a different pattern
Overall, Hispanic defendants receive 0.27 fewer months than White defendants after controlling for legal factors. The disparity in federal sentencing disproportionately affects Black defendants specifically.
6,220 Black defendants
1,992 Black defendants
126,115 Black defendants
200 Black defendants
1,662 Black defendants
1,063 Black defendants
8,681 Black defendants
6,817 Black defendants
1,614 Black defendants
23,396 Black defendants
The Trend
22 Years. Still Unequal.
The Black penalty has persisted every single year since 2002. After briefly narrowing around 2015-2016, it has rebounded to over 5 months. The Hispanic effect (amber) fluctuates near zero — sometimes slightly above, sometimes below — telling a fundamentally different story from the persistent Black penalty.
The Geographic Lottery
Where You're Sentenced Matters
Average sentence length varies dramatically across federal districts. Your zip code can mean the difference between years behind bars.
■ Above median ■ Below median
The Calculator
What Would Your Sentence Be?
Pick everything except race. Then see how race alone changes the outcome.
The Evidence
The Numbers Don't Lie
OLS regression on 1,293,474 federal sentencing cases. The model explains 74.3% of sentence variation (R² = 0.7426).
| Variable | Effect (months) | Significant |
|---|---|---|
| Black (vs White) | +3.85 | p < 0.05 ✓ |
| Hispanic (vs White) | -0.27 | p < 0.05 ✓ |
| Female (vs Male) | -7.45 | p < 0.05 ✓ |
| Guideline Minimum | +0.70 | p < 0.05 ✓ |
| Criminal History Points | +0.38 | p < 0.05 ✓ |
| Age | +0.01 | p < 0.05 ✓ |
| Non-Citizen (Illegal) | -0.42 | p < 0.05 ✓ |
| Weapon Involved | +23.80 | p < 0.05 ✓ |
74.3%
Variance explained (R²)
1,293,474
Cases in model
+3.85
Black penalty (months)
Take Action
What You Can Do
Data alone doesn't change policy. People do.
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